In a comment about my earlier post about the family planning money likely being dropped from Obama’s stimulus plan, Daniel said he opposed family planning provisions in the House Dems’ stimulus proposal because he opposes pork in the stimulus bill. On that point, I would agree. I don’t know that I necessarily agree that this family planning money fits the classical definition of pork since it is available to any state that wants to participate and that it has the potential to save the government hundreds of millions of dollars. Having said that, I have no loyalty or passion for this provision, so I really don’t care whether it stays or goes. I would prefer to spend stimulus money on infrastructure, public investment and aid to the ailing states.
What I take issue with in Daniel’s comment is this statement and accompanying un-sourced quote:
Most of the money that will be spent won’t even be spent until after the ‘10 elections.
The government wouldn’t be able to spend at least one-fourth of a proposed $825 billion economic stimulus plan until after 2010, according to a preliminary report by the Congressional Business Office that suggests it may take longer than expected to boost the economy. The government would spend about $26 billion of the money this year and $110 billion more next year, the report said. About $103 billion would be spent in 2011, while $53 billion would be spent in 2012 and $63 billion between 2013 and 2019.
The problem with his statement is that it’s simply not true. Whatever his source, it cites a “preliminary report” that really wasn’t any official CBO report at all, as ThinkProgress noted yesterday:
As the Huffington Post’s Ryan Grim and the American Prospect’s Tim Fernholz reported last Friday, the CBO report being touted by conservatives and the media isn’t an actual report. “We did not issue any report, any analysis or any study,” a CBO aide told the Huffington Post.
Instead, the CBO “ran a small portion of an earlier version of the stimulus plan through a computer program that uses a standard formula” to determine how quickly money will be spent. As Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Scott Lily notes, even that CBO analysis is based “almost entirely on a review of historical data on program performance,” which likely applies “less during an economic crisis like the one we currently face.” OMB Director Peter Orszag says that 75 percent of the stimulus plan “will be spent over the next year and a half.”
Today, The Washington Post reports what the official CBO report actually says:
Approximately two-thirds of the spending and tax cuts contained in an economic stimulus package crafted by House Democrats would flow into the economy by the end of fiscal 2010, producing a “noticeable impact on economic growth and employment,” congressional budget analysts said yesterday.
In an eagerly awaited analysis of the stimulus package, which is set for a vote in the House tomorrow, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office concluded that the measure would cost the federal government about $816 billion over the next 10 years and that approximately $526 billion, or about 65 percent, would be spent by the end of September 2010.
The reality is, according to the CBO report, most of the money would be spent before the 2010 elections.
Now, what is true is that some portions of the stimulus package will be spent at a slower rate than other portions. For example, the CBO estimates that only 40 percent of the package devoted to highways, schools and other infrastructure projects would be spent by the end of 2010. Other portions that include tax cuts and direct aid to the poor and unemployed would be spent at a faster rate. But we shouldn’t reject infrastructure projects simply because they take longer to ramp up. This nation is in desperate need of infrastructure improvement — especially with its bridges. This portion of the stimulus will continue to inject investment into the economy beyond 2010, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
The point is, if you’re going to challenge the merits of something, you should probably understand that thing enough to know what its merits may or may not be.